Insights

Perspectives on the Future of Investment Management

Thought leadership from practitioners who are building the infrastructure for the next generation of asset and wealth managers.

European fixed income·October 2026·5 min

France Pays More Than Italy. This Is Not 2012.

France's 10-year spread to German Bunds has risen from 68bps in June to 132bps, now 29bps above Italy and 50bps above Greece. A sovereign debt crisis lifts every spread and keeps the queue; here one credit jumped it. Our read of five eurozone spread curves says this is a political repricing concentrated in France, on top of a shared European move. Dispersion across the five has roughly tripled, and a broad euro-area government bond ETF took in +$715m through the stress. France is being repriced for its politics, not its solvency.

Portfolio construction·October 2026·5 min

The 60/40 Didn't Fail. The 40 Did.

We rebuilt the 60/40 in ten markets, in US dollars, from 2016 to 2026. Against the 2.34% return on US three-month bills, government bonds earned less than cash in eight of nine markets, and Japan's lost 3.98% a year. Every equity leg earned a positive Sharpe ratio. Japan shows the mechanism: its equities returned 9.80% a year, but its 60/40 returned 4.35%. A composite of nine market neutral funds returned 4.34% a year on 3.72% volatility. Used in place of each market's bonds, it raised the 60/40's Sharpe ratio in all nine, from +0.02 in China to +0.43 in Japan. The decade held no deflationary crash, the one government bonds are held for. The question is what your 40 is for.

Portfolio analytics·October 2026·5 min

The AI Trade Didn't Fade. It Split.

Most portfolio conversations still treat AI as one exposure. We tracked it as four equal-weighted baskets, 21 US-listed names in all. From the same starting level on 30 June, AI software finished 52.7% higher and AI chips 15.2% lower, 67.9 points apart in fifteen weeks. The legs moved on different forces, so all 21 names held together returned 8.1% with the shallowest fall of any series, 6.5%. The bond market noticed too: three hyperscalers' spreads widened 15.6bp against 8bp for the broad US investment-grade index, while one issuer widened 93.0bp. The question is not whether the AI trade is over. It is which part of it you own.

Credit markets·October 2026·6 min

The AI Credit Bill Has Two Names on It

AI-linked issuers sold about $121bn of bonds in 2025 to fund the build-out. Four independent signals, read separately, agree on who is paying for it. CoreWeave is priced for real default risk, at a market-implied 60% to 67% chance of default over five years. Oracle is the name to watch at 21% to 25%. The other six sit between 5% and 13%: ordinary investment-grade credit, widening off a low base. Stress sits where the financing has been heaviest and most recent.

Distribution intelligence·October 2026·8 min

Allocate Your Relationships Like Capital

Asset managers use research, analytics and risk models to decide where to invest. In most firms, distribution still runs on intuition and spreadsheets. US option-income ETFs took $62.6bn of net inflows in twelve months, and holdings filings show 1,301 advisory firms bought last quarter. Nobody can call 1,301 firms. Ranked on probability, revenue and timing, 131 deserve a salesperson's week, and 119 of them are new to the category or accelerating. The same method finds the need: 67 of 146 US public pensions hold more private equity than their target. Relationships are scarce. Intelligence tells you where to invest them.

Portfolio construction·October 2026·12 min

The Diversifier That Stopped Diversifying

It is not bonds that stopped cushioning equities. It is the bonds family office portfolios hold. We measured the bond sleeves of six regional family office model portfolios against a major bank's published 2026 planning assumptions. The bonds they hold carry a forward correlation of +0.22 to +0.64 with their own equities, against +0.09 to +0.15 for the same weight in hedged global government bonds. In a 20% equity fall the US sleeve as held loses about 4.0%, against 0.7% in hedged government bonds. Yet 48% of new US bond fund money in 2024 and 2025 went into aggregate and credit funds, against about 14% into government funds.

Portfolio construction·October 2026·6 min

Don't Call the Top. Build for How It Ends.

Nobody can date the end of this bull. What ends it decides the damage, and a portfolio can be built for both endings today. The ten largest companies in the S&P 500 now hold 40.9% of its market value, up from 28.9% at the trough. In a standard 60/40 at today's index weights they are 24.7% of the capital and 50.6% of the risk. After the dot-com and financial crisis endings the index took 73.8 and 58.3 months to regain its peak, against 5.7 after COVID and 23.3 after the 2022 rate shock. A book that caps the ten largest at a quarter of the equity sleeve and splits its bonds between intermediate and short Treasuries fell less in all four endings, at a cost of about 0.3 points a year in this bull.

Product design·October 2026·12 min

To CFD or Not to CFD

Contracts for difference have a defensible niche: short-horizon, leveraged, sized trading. They are not a substitute for building long-term wealth, and the product's own mechanics are why. Leverage turns an ordinary drawdown into a margin call, financing is charged daily on the full notional, and the holder owns nothing underneath. FCA and ESMA disclosures show 70-89% of retail CFD accounts losing money over 12 months. We measured the other side from our own fund data: on $10,000 held for a year, CFD financing at about 7% costs $700, while the median index equity ETF costs $25 (UCITS) to $38 (US). For long-term growth, direct shares and listed ETFs remain the structurally sound default.

Portfolio construction·October 2026·12 min

Concentrated by Default

A cap-weighted US Mega Cap sleeve looks like ten large-cap holdings. Statistically, it behaves like one. Seven AI-capex names, semiconductors and hyperscalers, carry 73.0% of the basket's weight and explain 80-91% of its month-to-month return variance, and large institutional books carry the same cluster as a largely unlabelled factor bet. We tested four ways to reduce it. Adding ten more large caps under cap-weighting barely moves the link to AI-capex, from 0.91 to 0.89. Equal-weighting the same twenty names cuts it to 0.76, takes about two-fifths off volatility and drawdown, and still beats SPY and QQQ. For a pension stress test the answer is core-satellite: an equal-weight core and an AI-capex satellite sized on purpose, not inherited by construction.

Portfolio construction·September 2026·15 min

What Replaces Bonds?

From 1986 to 2020 core bonds cut portfolio risk by more than they cut return. Since 2021 they have not: on monthly returns their correlation to US equities is +0.63, positive at every frequency tested, and in 2022 they fell 13.0% while equities fell 18.2%. We screened fourteen liquid substitutes across six correlation clusters and two came through, doing different jobs. Gold enhances return, at 17.31% a year, but its edge is concentrated in 2025. Market-neutral hedges, at -0.56 correlation and +20.5% in 2022. Neither does both. A 60/20/20 book of equities, gold and market-neutral returned 12.0% at 8.7% volatility with a -13.7% drawdown, against 8.2%, 10.9% and -20.0% for the 60/40, and the barbell beat bonds on return, volatility and drawdown at every equity weight tested. Equity market-neutral funds have grown around 65% organically since January 2021, the fastest of any category we examined.

Fixed income·September 2026·14 min

The Chart Is Right. The Story Is Wrong.

A chart of China's US Treasury holdings falling from 14.02% of the market to 1.96% has been going round, and the conclusion attached to it is that China is selling. The chart is accurate; we rebuilt it from the Treasury's own releases and it reproduces to the decimal. The conclusion is wrong three times over. A share has two moving parts, and since 2011 marketable Treasury debt has more than tripled, so 9.84 of the 12.06 point fall is US issuance rather than any change in Chinese behaviour. China's holdings did halve, from $1,316.7bn to $618.0bn, but Belgium and Luxembourg's rose $581.8bn over the same period, 83% of the fall, and the reporting system counts a bond by where it is custodied rather than by who owns it. One episode settles it: between 2014 and 2017 China's reserves fell by roughly $990bn, Belgium's reported holdings fell $270.7bn, and China's own reported line moved $1.6bn. We also tested the month-to-month correlation the whole story rests on, found it fails a rank test, and took it out of our own first draft.

Portfolio construction·September 2026·16 min

What a Sharia-Compliant 60/40 Actually Buys

A global sukuk fund reports 2.29% annualised volatility on daily data and 4.52% measured monthly, so about half of its low headline risk is an artefact of a book that does not reprice every day. Over 1,685 matched trading days a Sharia-screened large-cap equity fund tracked its conventional twin at 0.976 with a realised beta of 1.03, while the sukuk sleeve ran 4.08 years duration against 6.42 and 23.6% below investment grade against 48.6%. A straight relabelling of a conventional 60/40 tracked it at 0.958 and ran lower volatility, not because sukuk is calm but because the sukuk sleeve diversifies its own equity sleeve at 0.116 against 0.432 for the conventional pair. Compliance is the constraint; composition is the exposure. What the screen costs, what the label does not tell you, and the country tag that read Cayman Islands until March 2026.

Portfolio construction·September 2026·18 min

The Hedge Was Built for a Different Shock

In the month after the strikes on Iran began, every conventional hedge fell with equities: gold fell 11.1%, long-dated Treasuries 4.2% and US equities 4.9%, while oil rose 53.6%. Allocators bought government bond ETFs at 1.5 times their 2025 pace as those funds fell. Across thirteen geopolitical risk episodes since 1990, the three that ran through oil all saw Treasury yields rise, and since 2022 stocks and bonds have moved together. Two of the three scenarios in a standard stress library still assume Treasuries and gold rally. Where geopolitical risk belongs in a portfolio, strategic or tactical, and whether history still fits, with a full data appendix.

Private markets·September 2026·20 min

Price the Pipeline, Then Prove the Platform

Family offices are writing direct cheques into AI-driven biotech, and the pitch leads with the algorithm. This note sets out how to value such a company. Price the pipeline against what the listed market already pays: 19.6% of US-listed biotechs valued under $300m trade at or below their cash. Then pay for the platform where its evidence meets the risk still ahead. The proven edge of AI-discovered molecules sits at Phase 1, and in our worked example the same improvement in the odds is worth $4.9m at Phase 1 and $152.1m at Phase 3. A worked price test, the jobs a family office carries without a fund manager, and every source named.

Product design·September 2026·11 min

Nine Funds Is Not a Category

An allocator asked for a balanced portfolio built from liquid alternative exchange-traded funds, with long/short equity on one side and long/short fixed income on the other. The fixed income strategy named has no category at all, and the screen returned nine funds. So we counted the shelf. The entire US alternative ETF market is 39 funds and $23.6bn, which is 1.35% of US ETFs by count and 0.27% of the assets, against 1,920 equity ETFs holding $6,678bn. Long/short equity, the flagship strategy of the whole category, is nine funds. Equity market neutral is three. Nineteen of the fifty-nine funds a buyer would call alternative are not classified as alternative at all, because long/short equity is filed under equity and unconstrained bond under fixed income. Median fund age is 3.2 years and 46% of the shelf is under three years old. Priced on forward capital market assumptions the alternative construction wins every comparison, but that rests entirely on carrying six years of measured outperformance forward unchanged. Set it to zero, change nothing else, and four out of four becomes nought out of four.

Fixed income·September 2026·12 min

The Signal You Can Trust Is Not the One That Can Hurt You

Government bond yields across Europe and the other major markets have risen to their highest levels in years, and measured against each market's own record the picture is far less extreme than the headline suggests. The same US ten-year sits at the 42nd percentile of its history since 1970 or the 99.5th since 2010, on the same day, and the only thing that changed is the lookback. Screening for episodes as broadly elevated as today returns seven earlier cases, and in all seven the average yield was lower two years later, by four to 121 basis points. Rebuilding the US equity market from our own security prices on point-in-time index membership, equities were lower at 24 months in only two of the seven. But three were followed by falls of more than a fifth, of 24.6, 38.0 and 47.7 per cent, and the other four by almost nothing at all. Today's average sits at 3.99 per cent, lower than six of those seven. The bond outcome was consistent. The equity outcome was not. The thing you could have predicted was not the thing that could have hurt you.

Fixed income·September 2026·10 min

Half of This Trade Is Built to Last

As policy expectations turned hawkish this summer, money moved through the bond market, and it did not move the way the story is usually told. The rotation is normally described as money leaving duration for the front end. Include the middle of the curve, which is the largest part of the market and is usually left out, and medium-dated funds took +$138bn over six months against +$120bn into short-dated. The bid broadened rather than shortened; only the very long end went begging, and that is fifty funds and about $10bn. The move away from risk happened on a different axis, by who you lend to rather than for how long. And the two legs have very different shelf lives: around nine tenths of the movement in corporate debt tracks the news, against under a fifth of the movement in government debt. One is a sentiment position that will leave the way it arrived. The other is cash matching liabilities. Most commentary treats them as one trade.

Priced versus realized·August 2026·10 min

All of the Risk, None of the Premium

Almost every private strategy is impossible to study, because nothing liquid holds the same thing. One is the exception: the fee income and carried interest a stakes fund buys a minority claim on is also what listed asset managers report as earnings, so the same economics are appraised quarterly in a fund and priced every morning on an exchange. Over 43 months the liquid twin returned 21.5 per cent. The index returned 22.2 per cent over exactly the same window, at 13.8 per cent volatility against the twin's 30.6, and a 9.8 per cent drawdown against 36.5. The extra risk earned nothing. The quarterly appraisals show nothing resembling that ride, and the reporting calendar does not explain it: observe the identical series only four times a year and you still see a 30.8 per cent fall, so looking less often hides 5.7 points of a 36.5 point drop and no more. Nor was there ever a diversifier here to break. While the bond hedge moved from -0.44 to +0.54 after March 2022, these economics sat between 0.65 and 0.78 against equities in every window with enough data, and the highest reading is the crisis.

Portfolio analytics·August 2026·9 min

A 60/40 Portfolio Is Not One Strategy

Five funds all currently sold as balanced, moderate or tactical hold between 13.8 and 66.3 per cent in equities, and two of them carry the identical category tag while sitting 18.5 points apart. One reports a cash position of minus 21.5 per cent, which is borrowing the fund's name gives no hint of. Hold the split at exactly 60/40 by weight and the portfolios still diverge by 146 basis points of return and 280 of volatility, with the effective number of independent bets running from 1.18 to 4.17. Then change nothing in the portfolio at all: priced on six houses' published capital market assumptions, the same 60/40 moves 99 basis points, and the houses differ by nearly three times on what the equity leg earns over the bond leg. One of them publishes two correct expected returns for the same asset, 124 basis points apart, which is larger than the disagreement between all six. The label names a weight. It does not name a portfolio, and it does not name a return.

Institutional report·August 2026·11 min

The Rail Is the Product: Tokenised Cash Funds and What the Checking Is Worth

A tokenised cash fund holds the same Treasury bills you already own, settles on a rail that runs continuously, and costs a little more. Whether to switch is very hard to answer honestly, because the two sides answer to different disclosure regimes: one publishes a standardised thirty-day yield, the other a seven-day sponsor rate; one a total expense ratio, the other a subsidised management fee with custody outside it. None of it is concealed. Our view is to change the question. This is a liquidity operations instrument, not a yield instrument, and it belongs in the treasury and collateral sleeve budgeted against settlement risk. The segment is $16.19bn across 87 products, roughly double a year ago, and one incumbent fund is still more than six times that. The premium is not a number: depending which two funds you compare it runs from nothing to more than forty basis points, and all the answers are defensible. Three on-chain funds resolve in our own data, each named like a share class of an existing fund and recorded as a wholly new one, and one ticker widely quoted for a tokenised Treasury fund resolves to an unrelated listed bond fund at $2.49bn.

Institutional report·August 2026·9 min

Off the Shelf: What to Establish Before You Compare a Listed Product

A fortnight ago we published seven steps for choosing a structured product and called step two, screening the listed shelf, a gate that shortens everything after it. An adviser then asked whether to buy a newly launched gold income fund or build the same exposure more cheaply, and running our own process on a real product turned that conclusion around. The long exposure is assembled from two options on Treasury collateral rather than held. Three yields are published for the same fund, 15.8 per cent, 14.79 per cent and 2.85 per cent, and only the last one measures income, so an adviser sizing a replication to the headline is underwriting to a number the fund does not earn. And the fee premium over plain equity beta is about 45 basis points compared like for like, or about 24 if the wrapper types are mixed, which is the most natural comparison anyone would run. None of it is concealed. Every figure is published. Step two is not a gate that shortens the work; it is where the work moved to.

Flow research·August 2026·10 min

The Only Thing That Rotated Was the Narrative

The rotation described all summer does not appear in the flow record. US government bond funds took in $14.0bn across the six weeks to 10 August, an inflow in every single week, and every maturity bucket was positive including the longest. The story came from a normalised score that dipped negative in three of those weeks, and that score measures how quickly money arrives, not which way it is going. We made the same error in our own first pass. The adviser panel agrees with the money, the gold buying is real but a fortnight old in the US and steady only in Europe, and the standard stress library holds three scenarios, all of them growth or rate shocks, with one provider in seven publishing a gold assumption you could size a hedge with.

Institutional report·August 2026·10 min

Choosing a Structured Product: Shapes, Wrappers, and a Seven-Step Selection Process

Structured-product selection is two decisions, not one: the payoff shape the client wants, and the wrapper it is held in. The two are routinely collapsed into a single product recommendation. Six shapes account for effectively the whole market, and in four of them the investor is the seller of optionality, so the coupon is premium received for a risk assumed rather than yield earned. The listed alternative is $290.0bn across 347 US funds, concentrated in two shapes and thin in three, which tells a selector before any analysis whether the shelf can help or whether the conversation is bespoke. Includes the seven-step process applied to any replication request, and a worked example of pricing issuer credit from the issuer's own traded curve.

Intelligence·August 2026·12 min

Art Is Twice as Risky as Your Report Says

Consolidate a family's art at the valuation on file and the measured risk of the household falls. It did so in 27 of 27 configurations we tested, which is the tell. The reported volatility is 9.8%; correcting for appraisal smoothing gives 19.6% and an independently unsmoothed series gives 21.3%, two unrelated methods landing within 1.7 points of each other. Feed a model the reported number and it wants 22.4% of household wealth in art; feed it the corrected one and it wants nothing. Here is the input set to use instead, how much the portfolio can carry, and why a report saying 41.0% illiquid is really 57.5%.

Intelligence·July 2026·10 min

There Is No Such Thing as a Gold Allocation

Gold is near a record high and investors pulled $5.41 billion out of precious-metals funds in 2026. Both are true. Split the same universe by instrument and the contradiction resolves: physical vehicles took in $1.67bn while miner equity lost $7.08bn, and the miner trade ran a full round trip that unwound $13.33bn across five months. Strip the news out of Western flows and the structural component is negative, and has been for nine years. The buyer setting the price does not appear in the data at all.

Intelligence·July 2026·11 min

Diversification Did Not Disappear. It Moved.

Two of the three assets a portfolio holds for protection have stopped providing it. Equities against long Treasuries sit at +0.15, the 97th percentile of twenty years, against a QE-era average of −0.41. Gold is at an eleven-year high against equities, and its excellent 2026 is the reason rather than a coincidence. The one asset genuinely diversifying is at the 1st percentile and almost nobody owns it. The uncomfortable part is that the capital market assumptions have already re-based to all this, and the portfolios built on them have not.

Intelligence·July 2026·9 min

Indirect Is Not Diversified

There are two kinds of AI infrastructure, and only one of them diversifies anything. 65% of family offices say AI is a priority while more than 70% hold no infrastructure at all, so moving down the stack into power, cooling and data centres is a sound answer. It removes the risk of backing the wrong winner. It does not remove the risk that there is less to win: under a hyperscaler capital expenditure pullback the tilted portfolio loses to the baseline by 318 basis points, and the standard six-scenario stress test never shocks a single asset the tilt bought.

Intelligence·July 2026·8 min

The AI Trade Hidden in Your Portfolio

You do not have to believe AI is a bubble to have a problem. You only have to look at what you already own. The ten largest positions in the S&P 500 are 37% of the index and every one is the AI trade; the same names top the 'total market' and 'global' funds. The median US wealth manager holds ~16% in tech and under 1% in energy, ten 'different' funds hold the same ten names at a 0.70 correlation, and the 'safe' bond sleeve is priced for the same world. When a crowded trade reprices, the labels stop mattering and it moves together.

Intelligence·July 2026·6 min

Which China Are You Buying?

China is not one investment. Mainland A-shares returned +9.0% while offshore MSCI China returned -6.2% in the same 13 weeks, a 15-point gap that runs on the vehicle you own, not the sectors you picked. European institutions built a structural EM overweight through 2024 then cooled, their China-specific buying is a contrarian signal, and EM sovereign spreads near a 15-year low at 181bps confirm a thin cushion. Which China you own is the question a single 'China' line obscures.

Distribution Intelligence·June 2026·8 min

Said vs Solved.

Where allocators are heading, and where the math says they should. More than a third of advisors are reading the same fixed-income script. Set against a consensus of eight capital-market-assumption providers, the loudest trades carry the weakest math: private equity reads 0.53 while direct lending reads near 1.0. The gap between said and solved is the least-competed pipeline a distribution team will find all year.

Private Markets·June 2026·8 min

The SpaceX IPO and the Tyranny of the Average.

SpaceX just became the biggest IPO in history, at roughly $1.77 trillion. Across 3,700 funds in our database, venture's average net return is 13.4% and its median is 0.2%, the same funds. What the power law, the vintage cycle and the lock-up clock say about buying the listing, and why the edge for a buyer today is discipline, not the asset.

Portfolio Analytics·June 2026·7 min

A Factor Weight Is Not a Risk Budget.

A formal risk model says interest rates are 2% of a family office portfolio's risk. A rate shock takes 14% off it. The gap lives in the valuation channels the model cannot see, and five targeted moves close it for eight basis points of return.

Portfolio Analytics·June 2026·7 min

Diversified on Paper. One Bet in Practice.

A typical growth family office portfolio was 98% a single equity-factor bet, with almost no inflation protection. An energy shock exposed it. Re-diversifying the risk budget wins in five of six stress scenarios, and gives up no risk-adjusted return on long-run assumptions.

Flow Research·June 2026·7 min

Watch the Money, Not the Memo.

Where public and private capital is actually moving in 2026, region by region. US buyers put $1.04tn into US equity; Europe put €10bn into US and €198bn into EM. Same memo, opposite money, and the gap is where the next mandate is.

Allocator Research·June 2026·8 min

Five Trends Every Allocator Can Name. Five Gaps Almost None Have Closed.

What 515 institutions and $29.9 trillion are doing underneath the headlines. Each well-known trend hides a gap between the portfolio allocators describe and the one they actually hold, closing at a different speed in every region.

Insight·January 2025·4 min

Bridging Technology and Strategy in Asset Management

In today's complex financial landscape, asset and wealth managers face mounting pressure to optimise costs, generate revenue, and deliver innovative solutions.

Insight·January 2025·4 min

Institutional Growth Through Product Extensions

How small-cap value managers can overcome capacity constraints through innovative distribution strategies and portfolio customisation technology.

Insight·January 2025·4 min

Scaling Innovation with Traditional Asset Managers

Delivering tailored solutions that allow traditional managers to focus on core competencies while we handle portfolio construction and execution complexities.

Insight·January 2025·4 min

Transforming Investment Strategies

Staying competitive requires balancing innovation and efficiency. How to bridge the gap between cutting-edge investment technology and strategic business objectives.